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Garlic News

Garlic News


Inside China's garlic
bubble



fortune


By
Erik Heinrich, contributorMarch 24, 2010: 4:44 AM ET






(Fortune)
-- Garlic has always been revered in China -- not so much for its overpowering
bite but as an important ingredient in cuisine and related health benefits. The
philosopher Confucius was so fond of the pungent plant he even extolled its
virtues in the Shih Ching, the oldest anthology of Chinese
poetry.


But
never in its long and varied history has garlic been more coveted in China than
today, where a speculative bubble has forced wholesale prices to increase 605%
to $1,200 per tonne from March 2009 through February 2010. Garlic was the best
performing commodity in China in 2009 -- and is set for a repeat performance in
2010.




"Local
investors have made serious money in garlic," says Jerry Lou, a China strategist
at Morgan Stanley in Hong Kong. Indeed, crude oil and gold futures -- widely
regarded as the aristocrats of the commodities world -- climbed 100% and 27%
respectively over the same 12-month period. Similarly cocoa and soybean futures,
all more widely traded than garlic, improved 42% and 13%.


"It's
been a great bull market for commodities across the board," says Larry
Schneider, director of business development at Zaner Group, a Chicago-based
brokerage firm specializing in futures and commodities. "But I can't remember
when anything last shot up like this."


The
garlic bubble's roots trace back to 2008, a bad year for garlic producers around
the world, with many losing money due to a market glut that pushed prices down.
As a result, China, which is the world's No. 1 supplier, cut its output by half
in 2009.


At
the same time, the swine flu epidemic pushed demand through the roof, because
the Chinese view garlic's mild antibiotic properties as protection against
infection. In combination, these two factors created the ideal situation for
speculators to start a fire under garlic that has
continued.


"By
May garlic may be completely sold out in China," says John Huang, overseas
representative for Jinxiang-based Yafod International Ltd., whose Pretty Garlic
brand is his industry's equivalent of Nike or Coca-Cola.


0:00
/2:48
Bluefin
tuna ban sunk



He
expects prices to plummet to as low as $600 per tonne in June, when the new
harvest hits the market, before rebounding to as high $1,300 with the help of
speculators before the year's end. That's not as big a gain as last year, but
the potential for big returns is still there.


Unfortunately,
foreigners have no way of profiting from China's garlic bubble. That's because,
unlike sugar and cocoa, there is no futures market for this oddball commodity.
Instead, speculators need to buy up as much produce as they can from individual
garlic farmers in the local yuan, load up trucks and store their loot in
warehouses, hoping to squeeze supply and drive prices up
further.


This
kind of price-fixing is having ripple effects around the world, including the
U.S. where about 50% of the raw garlic consumed comes from China. U.S.-grown
garlic, which sells at a premium because it is more potent, has appreciated
about 70% in the last 12 months, says Bill Christopher, co-owner of Gilroy,
Calif.-based Christopher Ranch, the biggest domestic supplier of raw garlic in
the U.S. "Nobody made money on garlic a couple of years ago," he says. "With
what's happening in China, we're profitable again."


While
the Chinese government has a reputation for holding its economy on a tight
leash, it appears to be unfazed by the rampant speculation in garlic. "There's
nothing the government can do," says Huang of Yafod International. "There are
many millionaires in China who want to invest their
capital."


Let
a million garlic bulbs bloom.